Climate change: underwater forest decline

Figueira W. F. & Booth D. J. (2010) Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters. Global Change Biol 16, 506-16.

Aim: 
Quantify overwinter survival of tropical fish in SE Australia and evaluate the role of water temperature in facilitating overwintering
Type of Study: 
Surveys and modelling
Key Results: 
The probability of persistence of juvenile tropical species in temperate reefs was most strongly influenced by average winter temperature and there was no effect of recruitment strength. Current warming trajectories predict 100% of winters will be survivable by at least some tropical species in temperate reefs around Sydney by 2080.
Treatments: 
Contrast abundance of tropical fish juveniles prewinter and overwinter survivors in temperate reefs
Response: 
Further studies on ecological impacts of range shifting tropical species are needed. Where impacts are likely to be large, understanding the mechanisms that facilitate these range expansions will be key to understanding and managing temperate reefs under climate change
Models: 
General linear models
Reviewer: 
Adriana Vergés
Locations: 
New South Wales (Australia) locations from Solitary Islands to Merimbula
Response variable : 
Abundance of tropical fish prewinter juveniles and overwinter survivors in temperate reefs; daily average water temperature from in situ loggers and satellite data
Replication: 
Variable (site specific)
Ecosystem: 
Temperate reef
Full Reference: 
Figueira W. F. & Booth D. J. (2010) Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters. Global Change Biol 16, 506-16.