Investigate when the 1.5°C global warming level is likely to be breached and consider the influence of decadal climate variability on this timing.
Type of Study:
The 1.5°C global warming level is likely to be breached by the early 2030s and it is more likely to be sooner than that if the IPO switches to a positive phase.
Applies standard methods in climate science to novel projection of timing of a 1.5-degree world.
Henley, B. J. and A. D. King, 2017: Trajectories towards the 1.5°C Paris target: modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1002/2017GL073480.